Market Report Summary for December 2023

, , , - Mario Conte - January 26, 2024

The average home selling price reached $586,681 in December 2023, marking a yearly increase of 6.9%.

However, home sales in Montreal decreased by 6.1% compared to the previous year, while active listings increased by 19% compared to last December.

The median price of a single-family home increased by 4.9% year-over-year, reaching $535,000.

The median price of a condo increased by 4.3% year-over-year, reaching $391,000.

As for the median price of a multiplex, it experienced a 1.3% year-over-year increase, reaching $699,000.

These figures reflect the seventh consecutive month of declining sales in the Montreal real estate market, primarily due to seasonal factors and high mortgage interest rates that have persisted for over a year. High interest rates have made it difficult for many buyers to afford a mortgage, particularly over the past year.

Nevertheless, despite this downward sales trend, home prices in the Montreal real estate market have continued to rise compared to the previous December.

Regarding real estate prices, the average selling price of homes in December 2023 in Montreal represents a 6.9% increase compared to December 2022 and a 1.4% increase compared to the previous month. It's also worth noting that the reference price in November 2023 increased by 54% compared to November 2018, indicating a significant price increase over the past five years.

In terms of sales and inventory, 2,096 properties changed ownership in December 2023 in Montreal, marking a 6.1% decrease compared to December of the previous year and a 21% decrease compared to the previous month. At the end of December 2023, there were 15,907 active listings, representing a 19% increase compared to the previous year but a 10.2% decrease compared to the previous month. Although new listings decreased by 47% compared to the previous month due to seasonal effects, the 2,542 new listings in December 2023 still represented a 12% increase compared to the previous year.

It's important to note that the sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) in Montreal in December is 82%, which is generally interpreted as a seller's market. However, in December, this ratio is traditionally high due to fewer sellers listing their homes on the market. Consequently, average housing prices may be slightly lower during this time of year.

Regarding the performance of different property types, the median price of a single-family home in Montreal was $535,000 in December 2023, marking a 0.9% decrease from the previous month but a 4.9% increase year-over-year. The median price of condominiums increased by 4.3% compared to the previous year, reaching a median price of $391,000 in December 2023. As for multiplexes, their median price in December 2023 was $699,000, reflecting a 1.3% year-over-year increase but a 4.4% decrease from the previous month.

To summarize 2023, there were 36,184 homes sold in the Montreal real estate market, a 14% decrease compared to 2022. However, active listings remained higher throughout the year compared to 2022. The average selling price of homes in 2023 in Montreal was $574,845, a 1.1% decrease compared to 2022.

In comparison with the housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver, which experienced year-over-year increases in sales in December 2023, the Montreal housing market saw a 6.1% decrease in sales compared to December 2022. Furthermore, new listings in Toronto decreased by 5% between December 2022 and December 2023, while new listings in Vancouver and Montreal increased by 9.9% and 12%, respectively.

Finally, the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 led to a significant increase in mortgage rates in Montreal and Quebec, making mortgages much more expensive than in 2020-2021. This resulted in reduced demand for housing in Montreal. Current forecasts suggest that mortgage rates will start to decrease in the first quarter of 2024. However, given the substantial increase in housing prices in Montreal over the past five years, it's unlikely that we'll see significant price appreciation. Forecasts regarding interest rates continue to fluctuate, causing many homebuyers to hesitate to withdraw funds from their TFSA or RRSP to purchase a home in Quebec.

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